After months of positioning, the primary season is finally upon us. This Tuesday, Iowans will caucus and render the first real winners and losers in the race to secure the 2012 Republican nomination for president. By the end of January, the Iowa caucus and the three primaries that follow ? New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida ? will most likely bring startling clarity to the currently murky and distorted picture of this most volatile preseason of the modern political era.
How important is Iowa?
It can be everything. Iowa is the venue that gave life to the improbable candidacies of George McGovern, Jimmy Carter and Barack Obama. Iowa also clarified extremely confusing and competitive races in 2000 and 2004, propelling Al Gore and John Kerry, respectively, on to relatively uneventful Democratic nomination victories.
However, the history of the Republican caucus in the Hawkeye State is less definitive. Iowa picked the eventual GOP nominee in 1996 and 2000, but Ronald Reagan lost to George H.W. Bush on his way to the nomination in 1980. Eight years later, likewise, Bush lost to Bob Dole in Iowa on the way to his own nomination. In the last cycle, Mike Huckabee shocked a pack of GOP contestants to win the caucus, while the eventual Republican standard-bearer, John McCain, finished a distant third.
What we think we know about Iowa in 2012: Ron Paul is going to run strong. Newt Gingrich is losing altitude but should remain viable at least through the first skirmish in the Heartland. Mitt Romney is now all in and, with the endorsement of the Des Moines Register, he will be a major factor. Michele Bachmann remains fully invested in Iowa with a number of home-field advantages. Rick Perry will spend more money than most of his opponents combined to compete in the caucus. And then here is Rick Santorum, who is desperately hoping to be the big surprise of the night.
What could happen in Iowa in 2012?
Although it would be unusual, it is possible that Iowa may yield five candidates polling between 10 and 22 percent with no one even breaking the 25-point threshold.
What happens if there is no breakout candidate? What happens if Wednesday morning finds four to six candidates tightly packed together?
Political handicappers often declare that there are ?only three tickets out of Iowa.? Undoubtedly, if Bachman, Perry or Santorum finish under 10 percent in Iowa, their presidential bids are dead on arrival with virtually no reason to extend their respective campaigns. If Romney scores big, he has a golden opportunity to seal the nomination by midmonth.
On the other hand, let us consider the chaos scenario. If no one wins in Iowa, perhaps no one loses. If no one candidate can pull away, but all candidates put points on the board, it is possible to imagine the race moving to New Hampshire with all the Iowa players still viable plus one: Jon Huntsman.
New Hampshire and beyond
If you can imagine an inconclusive Iowa, a disappointing night for former Gov. Romney in New Hampshire a week later would blow a huge hole in his presumptive front-runner status. Regardless, a desperate showdown would once again loom in South Carolina, a state primary that has over time come to serve as the kingmaker in GOP nomination contests. Conceivably, any number of still-surviving candidates (Perry, Bachmann, Santorum and/or Gingrich) could face an absolute last stand in the Palmetto State. Survivors of South Carolina would move on to Florida, which might well offer the climactic marquee battle of the early primary race.
With proportional voting in place for the first time ever in the GOP race, Romney finds himself in an extremely enviable position. Even if he suffers a series of second-place finishes, he will not face the same dilemma as in the last cycle. Rather than fading down the stretch with his frustrating silver and bronze performances for no points, this time around he accumulates delegates with each and every contest. Over the long haul, Romney?s money, key endorsements, organization, experience and ?steady-wins-the-race? strategy give him a singular advantage.
Long shots
On the strength of his organization, appeal to people of faith and his indefatigable courtship of Hawkeye voters, Santorum could perform beyond current predictions in Iowa. But even in the best-case scenario, he faces real trouble building on a better-than-expected showing outside the Hawkeye State.
Likewise, we will most likely remember Bachmann as an intriguing, hardworking candidate, but her prospects beyond the Iowa caucuses, based on her narrow appeal, seem incredibly dismal. Losing her Iowa campaign manager to Paul last week sure didn?t help.
Perry too seems an unlikely long-term contender at this point. But he still offers the best record of any GOP candidate in that he?s a three-term big-state governor who has a proven track record as a chief executive.
Traditionally, this is a good thing in a GOP primary. Of course, Perry has other liabilities, and it seems increasingly doubtful whether his resume can overcome his propensity to look unqualified. But it is possible that Iowans give him one more serious look before Tuesday. A pleasant surprise in Iowa for Perry gets him to the South, where he has a chance to bloom.
Gingrich continues to thrill party faithful with his ability to articulate conservative policy and philosophy with courage and panache. However, his temperament, a relentlessly hostile media and, most daunting, his complete lack of a campaign organization make him seem especially vulnerable over the long haul.
Paul, 75, a Texas Republican, will never be president. His tough love is just not politically palatable to enough voters. Because he runs a very frugal operation with an intensely dedicated following, and he can continue his campaign through to the convention, he will likely finish second overall in the final delegate count. Nevertheless, as long as he does not opt for a third-party run, his impact on the race is fully contained.
Jon Huntsman may be the last wild card. Besides Perry, he is the other person who can boast of a conservative record as a chief executive. Granted, Huntsman?s home state of Utah does not strike us as a ?birthplace of presidents,? but Americans sometimes elect governors from less obvious origins under extraordinary circumstances.
For Huntsman, the clock is ticking. He has not broken through nationally, and, frankly, that is mostly his fault. He has not found his rhythm on the stump, and he inexplicably chose to market himself as a moderate to political consumers craving sincere conservatism. However, due to the lingering dissatisfaction with the field, and with a lot of luck, he has a chance to re-brand himself and catch fire at the exact right time.
If he can make a move in New Hampshire, where he has invested all his time and money, he can generate enough momentum to make him a viable option in South Carolina on Jan. 21 and, more importantly, Florida on Jan. 31. His one-state strategy is high-risk, but, if he can win or show in the Granite State, Huntsman has a chance to create a bit of buzz as the new kid in town.
It?s not at all certain the Iowa caucuses will predict the eventual Republican nominee, but we could know much more Wednesday regarding the nature and contours of the 2012 primary race before us.
Ashley Cruseturner teaches history at McLennan Community College.
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Source: http://www.wacotrib.com/opinion/136491798.html
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